Japan's ruling heads to elections as underdog

TOKYO – Japan's ruling conservative party, battered by a laggard economy and voter desire for change after more than half a century of virtual one-party rule, was expected to suffer an overwhelming defeat Sunday in hotly contested elections.

The Liberal Democratic Party, which has governed Japan for all but 11 months since 1955, went into the elections with all major polls projecting they would lose control of the lower house of parliament.

That would likely mean the fall of Prime Minister Taro Aso and his Cabinet and the creation of a new government headed by centrist Democratic Party of Japan chief Yukio Hatoyama — who would become the first prime minister not backed by the LDP since 1994.

The vote is widely seen as a barometer of two related issues — voter frustrations over the ailing economy, which is in one of its worst slumps since World War II, and a loss of confidence in the Liberal Democrats' ability to tackle tough problems such as the rising national debt and rapidly aging population.

But even with severe challenges pressing the nation, many analysts said the vote may not be about the issues so much as voters' general desire for something new after nearly 54 years under the Liberal Democrats.

They also note that although the Democrats promise to change Japan's approach on the economy and make Tokyo's diplomacy less U.S.-centric, their founders are both defectors from the Liberal Democrats and are not likely to present too radical a departure from Japan's current path.

"The election is more about emotions than policies," Tokyo University political science professor Takashi Mikuriya said in a televised interview. "Most voters are making the decision not about policies but about whether they are fed up with the ruling party."

Japanese media predict a high voter turnout.

The Yomiuri, the country's largest newspaper, reported Saturday that analysts and most political parties are expecting turnout to be higher than the 67.5 percent in the previous lower house elections in 2005, and could go as high as 70 percent.

Trying to cut the ruling party's losses, Aso — whose own support ratings have recently sagged to a dismal 20 percent — called on voters in a final pitch Saturday to stick with his party, saying the Democrats are untested and unable to lead.

"Can you trust these people? It's a problem if you feel uneasy whether they can really run this country," Aso told a crowd outside Tokyo.

Aso said more time is needed for economic reforms aimed at pulling the country out of its economic doldrums and asked for support "so our government can accomplish our economic measures."

He and the ruling party have stressed that they are the stewards of Japan's rise from the ashes of World War II into one of the world's biggest economic powers, and they are best equipped to get it out of its current morass.

But that argument has taken a beating.

On Friday, the government reported that the nationwide unemployment rate for July hit 5.7 percent — the highest level in Japan's post-World War II era — deflation intensified and families have cut spending, largely because they are afraid of what's ahead and are choosing to save whatever money they can as a safety measure.

Hatoyama has promised to cut wasteful spending, hold off on tax hikes planned by the Liberal Democrats and put more money into consumers' pockets. That is a sharp contrast with the Liberal Democrats' heavy focus on tax-funded stimulus packages that increase government spending and debt.

That approach by the ruling party is seen as problematic by many economists. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development predicts the country's public debt, already the highest among member countries, may reach 200 percent of gross domestic product next year.

Making the situation more dire is Japan's rapidly aging demographic — which means more people are on pensions, while there is a shrinking pool of taxpayers paying into the system to support them and other government programs.

Still, doubts remain about whether the Democrats can deliver on their promises.

They are proposing an expensive menu of initiatives: toll-free highways, free high schools, income support for farmers, monthly allowances for job seekers in training, a higher minimum wage and tax cuts. The estimated bill comes to 16.8 trillion yen ($179 billion) when fully implemented starting in fiscal year 2013.

"I've supported the LDP before, but I'm not sure this time," said Eri Sato, a 25-year-old saleswoman in Tokyo. "My concern is whether the Democrats can really achieve their campaign promises."

Recent polls have shown voters want change, however.

Polls by major newspapers, including the Mainichi and the Asahi, said Hatoyama's party is likely to win more than 320 seats in the 480 seat lower house, sharply higher than the 112 it held before parliament was dissolved in July.

If the opposition party wins, Hatoyama will almost certainly be named Japan's next prime minister in a special session of parliament which could come in mid-September.

Japanese media have already started predicting a timeline of events, such as when a new Cabinet will be formed, on the assumption that the opposition party will be victorious.

Along with his fiscal departures from the Liberal Democratic Party, Hatoyama says he will rein in the power of the bureaucracy and wants Japan to be more independent from the United States, Tokyo's key trading partner and military ally.

But Hatoyama, who holds a doctorate in engineering from Stanford University, insists he will not seek dramatic change in Japan's foreign policy, saying the U.S.-Japan alliance would "continue to be the cornerstone of Japanese diplomatic policy.

Karzai increases lead to 46 pct in Afghan election

KABUL – President Hamid Karzai widened his lead in Afghanistan's presidential race as new vote tallies were released Saturday, inching closer to the 50 percent threshold of votes he needs to avoid a run-off.

As Afghanistan's Independent Election Commission slowly releases partial results from the Aug. 20 presidential election, accusations of fraud have poured into the Electoral Complaint Commission. Videos of alleged fraud have been posted on the Internet, and Karzai's top challenger, Abdullah Abdullah, has made multiple complaints of cheating.

The allegations from Abdullah and other presidential candidates, along with low turnout in the violent south because of Taliban threats of violence, could strip the election of legitimacy in Afghan eyes. Security officials are monitoring tensions among Abdullah supporters for any signs that the election turmoil could ignite violence.

The latest results show Karzai ahead with 46.2 percent of the votes already counted against Abdullah's 31.4 percent. The results are based on 35 percent of the country's polling stations, meaning they could still change dramatically. Karzai must win 50 percent of ballots cast to avoid a runoff.

Final results will not be released until late September after the allegations of fraud have been investigated.

In Abdullah's latest salvo against the Afghan president, he said Karzai was behind "state-crafted, massive election fraud" and called his government "too corrupt" and the "worst in the world."

The U.N.-backed Electoral Complaints Commission has said the number of major fraud complaints that could "materially affect" the outcome had soared to 270.

The lengthy election process has added to strains in U.S.-Afghan relations, which had already cooled since the Obama administration took office.

Abdullah called the Karzai government a "mafia-like regime" in an interview with Italy's RAI State TV broadcast Friday. He denied that he had been approached about any sort of power-sharing deal and said he saw no place for himself in a Karzai-led administration. And while he said he would "resort to peaceful means" to register his election concerns, he left open the possibility that problems may arise.

"The fact is that the foundations of this country have been damaged by this fraud, throwing it open to all kinds of consequences, including instability," Abdullah said. "I have a vision for this country: to put it back on the right track. This regime is too corrupt, the worst in the world."

Top envoys for the Afghanistan-Pakistan region from 27 countries — including President Barack Obama's envoy, Richard Holbrooke — are to meet in Paris on Wednesday to discuss Afghanistan. The French Foreign Ministry sought to play down questions about the timing, saying the gathering is a follow-up meeting to an Afghan donors conference in Paris a year ago.

International officials — including Obama, the top U.N. official in Afghanistan and the European Commission — were quick to congratulate Afghans for carrying off the Aug. 20 vote in the face of Taliban threats and violence.

But the massive allegations of fraud that have surfaced since then have taken the shine off the election, and some officials are holding judgment on whether the process has been credible.

If the country holds a second round run-off, a new president might not be named until November or even later, and there are signs the strung-out process is fraying U.S.-Afghan relations.

On Friday, two officials said Karzai angrily accused the U.S. of pushing for a runoff vote during a heated meeting with Holbrooke the day after the election.

Karzai assured Holbrooke he would accept the election results but bristled when Holbrooke asked if he would also agree to a runoff, according to officials briefed about the meeting who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the information.

An angry Karzai accused the U.S. of urging a second round before all votes had been counted. Karzai said he would accept the election commission's tabulation as long as it reflected the facts. He did not elaborate, according to the officials.

Karzai enjoyed close ties with the Bush administration, which helped propel him to power after the collapse of the Taliban government in the U.S.-led invasion.

Since the Obama administration took office, U.S. officials have accused Karzai of weak leadership as well as tolerating corruption and a flourishing drug trade.

Afghan vote not all free: EU

KABUL (AFP) – EU observers on Saturday welcomed Afghanistan's elections as generally fair, but not universally free as speculation mounted over claims about who won the presidency and the possibility of a run-off.

The top contenders in the race both claim they were heading for victory after the second ever presidential election, which was acclaimed by the West but undermined by growing complaints of ballot-stuffing and low turnout.

But definitive results are not due until next month, leading Afghan and Western officials to call for calm as President Hamid Karzai declared a win and his main rival, ex-foreign minister Abdullah Abdullah, insisted he was ahead.

The election may have been hailed a success in foreign capitals, which have pumped billions into Afghanistan since the 2001 US-led invasion and deployed 100,000 troops to contain a Taliban insurgency but concerns have mounted.

"Free was not the case in some parts of the territory due to terror installed," the head of the EU election observation mission, Philippe Morillon, told a Kabul news conference.

"Generally what we have observed was considered by our observers with our methodology good and fair," he added, but reserved judgment on whether the polls were credible, saying "a lot of complaints" would take time to evaluate.

Other independent observers warned that turnout in Taliban strongholds in the south may have been as low as 10 and 25-30 percent for the hotspots of Kandahar and Helmand respectively.

A foreign official said that the Election Complaints Commission had so far received 100 formal complaints about irregularities, including "allegations of ballot-stuffing in Kandahar".

US President Barack Obama hailed the elections as an "important step forward" for the war-torn nation and his special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Richard Holbrooke, was conducting a series of meetings.

Holbrooke, who arrived on Wednesday for one his longest visits since taking office, held meetings with diplomats and officials, and Friday met Karzai, Abdullah and runner-up Ashraf Ghani, said a US embassy spokeswoman.

An energetic campaign by Abdullah and his claims of success, coupled with poor turnout in Karzai's powerbase in the south, have boosted prospects of a run-off, which would take place in early October.

"The question now is whether Karzai, who controls the electoral commission, will be willing to accept a second round. That was one of the issues of his meeting with Holbrooke," said one diplomat on condition of anonymity.

Western backers of Karzai's government have urged presidential candidates to refrain from premature announcements, respect the electoral process and for their supporters to keep calm.

The Independent Election Commission (IEC) said partial results would be released from Tuesday, but that the victor will not be announced until September.

Other observers have raised concern about the length of time before the results are announced, warning this might stoke tensions.

"One way to release that kind of political tension is to provide the public with information about election returns," said Glenn Cowan from US-based election monitors Democracy International.

The EU observers also raised concerns about the IEC's independence, quoting reports that the commission exerted pressure on its staff in a manner which raised questions about its impartiality.

But Karzai's campaign chief said early results gave the incumbent more than 50 percent -- a big enough lead to avert a run-off vote.

Abdullah followed comments by his campaign office that he had 63 percent compared with 31 percent for Karzai, saying: "The country would like to see a change, this is an opportunity for it."

Abdullah has a powerbase in the north and Karzai in the south, divided among the Tajiks and the Pashtuns -- the two largest ethnic groups in Afghanistan, which is still suffering from decades of war and devastating civil conflict.

Abdullah's office has lodged 40 complaints so far, mostly alleging local officials commanded people to vote for Karzai.

Karzai, chief rival claim victory in Afghan vote

KABUL (Reuters) – President Hamid Karzai's campaign and chief rival Abdullah Abdullah both said on Friday they had won Afghanistan's election, but Washington's chief envoy warned candidates not to declare victory prematurely.

Both camps said unofficial counts by campaign workers showed they had won enough votes to avoid a potentially destabilizing second round of voting in October. Election officials said no confirmed results had been released.

"Initial results show that the president has got a majority," Karzai's campaign manager Deen Mohammad told Reuters. "We will not get to a second round."

Abdullah, Karzai's former foreign minister, dismissed the Karzai camp's victory claim and said he was on track to win in the first round after Thursday's vote, which went ahead despite sporadic Taliban violence.

"I'm ahead. Initial results from the provinces show that I have more than 50 percent of the vote," Abdullah told Reuters.

Official preliminary results are not due for two weeks, but counting began immediately after polls closed on Thursday and is largely complete.

Analysts have warned that uncertainty over the outcome or accusations of widespread fraud could lead to civil unrest. U.S. envoy Richard Holbrooke said he was certain the outcome of the vote would be disputed.

"We always knew it would be a disputed election. I would not be surprised if you see candidates claiming victory and fraud in the next few days," Holbrooke said at a briefing in Kabul with election observers.

Holbrooke said Washington had an "agnostic" position and did not support any early, unofficial victory declarations.

A U.S. embassy spokeswoman said only the Independent Election Commission (IEC) was in a position to announce results and anything else was "just speculation."

Polls conducted before the election showed Karzai in the lead but suggested he would not win more than 50 percent of the vote needed to avoid a run-off.

Afghan and U.S. officials have breathed a sigh of relief after the relatively peaceful election, which had been marked by a dramatic escalation in violence in the weeks leading up to the vote.

Afghan and international forces suspended offensive operations on voting day, but attacks continued nonetheless.

Three U.S. troops were killed in roadside bomb and mortar attacks in the east and two British soldiers were killed in an explosion in southern Helmand on Thursday, the military said.

PATIENCE URGED

The 6,200 polling stations are required to make their results available to the public as they tabulate them to prevent fraud.

Zekria Barakzai, deputy head of the IEC, urged patience.

"We cannot confirm any claims by campaigning managers. It's the job of the election commission to declare the results. They should be patient," Barakzai said.

An independent Afghan monitoring body, FEFA, said it was concerned about the quality of the poll after receiving reports from its observers across the country of fraud and interference.

The International Republican Institute, a U.S.-based group that monitors elections, said Thursday's vote was marked by "serious problems," but had so far been credible.

Barakzai said two convoys of election workers transporting ballot boxes had been attacked following the vote. In one case, in Balkh province in the north, an election worker was killed and ballots that had already been counted were burned.

He said preliminary figures showed overall turnout was around 40-50 percent, roughly in line with estimates by Western diplomats before the poll. About 70 percent of registered voters cast ballots in the 2004 presidential poll.

Much is likely to depend on turnout in southern areas, such as Karzai's home province of Kandahar, where the president draws his strongest support but where voters faced the brunt of Taliban attacks and intimidation.

Abdullah's spokesman, Fazl Sangcharaki, said the north had voted solidly for Abdullah, except in Jowzjan province, home of Uzbek militia chieftain Abdul Rashid Dostum, who returned to the country days before the vote to campaign for Karzai.

Western backers have expressed concern about Karzai's tactic of seeking support from former militia chiefs, afraid that deals made to secure votes could bring warlords back to power.

In Washington, President Barack Obama hailed the conduct of the election and vowed to press on with his strategy, which has involved sending thousands of additional troops to the country.

The election was a test for Obama's new strategy aimed at reversing Taliban gains. U.S. combat casualties have risen amid a U.S. troop buildup and opinion polls have shown weakening American backing for the war.

(Writing by Paul Tait; Editing by David Fox)